Higher feed costs causes decline in protein output

Annual change in total beef, pork and chicken production

rising feed costs

Protein output is expected to notably decline next year, due largely to higher feed costs.

Although corn based ethanol is not the sole driver for the higher feed costs, it may be the reason we’re seeing a spike in corn prices. We’ll see a $5.00/bushel corn for protein and dairy producers in the coming year.

The 30 year average for farm corn prices before the fall of 2006 was roughly $2.35 a bushel.

USDA forecasts met with skepticism

In August, USDA released its crop production report amid a fair amount of skepticism that its forecast of both acreage and yield forecasts were too optimistic. The August U.S. average yield forecast for corn is very consistent with crop condition ratings in early August and with forecasts based on crop weather models while the yield forecast for soybeans was well below that indicated by crop condition ratings and crop weather models, perhaps reflecting the lateness of the crop. Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year’s record, but up 17 percent from 2006. Corn yields are expected to average 155 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. Yield forecasts may remain high after August 1 if some late season rain is received in dry areas and if the crop reaches maturity without a widespread killing frost. Soybean yield prospects are more difficult to anticipate, with production forecasts at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year but down 7 percent from the 2006 record. Yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from 2007, while harvested area is expected to be 17 percent higher than in 2007.

New Feed Network Focuses on Latest Feed Industry News, Animal Safety

WATT, an industry-leading service company with 90+ years of research, editorial, and marketing experience in the poultry, pig, and feed sectors, announces the launch of FeedIndustryNetwork.com. The go-to resource for the global feed industry, FeedIndustryNetwork.com offers an online interactive community where feed industry professionals can discuss topics such as feed processing, feed quality assurance, feed nutrition, antibiotics in feed and others.

FeedIndustryNetwork.com invites professionals to connect through blogging, feed discussion forums, feed webinars, and feed video channels, and offers access to digital versions of Feed Management and Feed International, monthly e-newsletters Feed E-news and Feed Formulator, feed white papers, and extensive archives with powerful search capabilities. All of these tools are focused on providing the latest feed industry news to assist farmers in raising more profitable feed.

The internet home of Feed Management and Feed International, FeedIndustryNetwork.com is unlike anything the industry has seen before. The powerful and world-class portal has been expertly designed to serve the global feed industry’s information needs through a rich, online community. Its most popular features include:

1. Blogging from global industry experts to provide an insider’s look and practical perspective on the latest trends and issues shaping the feed industry.

2. Data-driven analytics and graphics to help industry professionals visualize the latest trends in the feed industry and the impact on business. This fact-based information is a tremendous resource for informed decision-making in today’s global marketplace.

3.  “World Feed Panorama” – an annual feature that provides information on the latest worldwide feed manufacturing statistics.

“Not only does FeedIndustryNetwork.com provide the most comprehensive online resource for the global feed industry, but it also brings buyers and sellers together in an interactive platform where they can share effective, experience-based solutions,” said Greg Watt, chief executive officer of WATT. “Through the website and webinars, businesses and industry professionals can communicate with one another to address issues, debate, and problem-solve as they face new challenges and opportunities. This is tremendously powerful for businesses in today’s feed marketplace.”

In addition to offering the latest market information, insights, and best practices for safe, profitable animal feed manufacturing and distribution, FeedIndustryNetwork.com always covers the most up-to-the date topics that are crucial to today’s environmental concerns, such as renewable and organic feed, biofuels feed and more.

USA: Fields Begin to Dry Out, but Lower Feed Production Expected

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected in mid-June that U.S. 2008/09 corn production would be decreased 390 million bushels to 11.7 billion, with its next forecast due out in a week. The decline reflects lower expected yields due to slow planting progress, slow crop emergence, and persistent, heavy rainfall across the Corn Belt. Lower supplies are expected to boost feed prices and lower feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. World coarse grains production is expected to be down, with increased global feed production prospects offsetting about two-thirds of the U.S. drop. Because of increased worldwide beginning stocks, world coarse grains supplies for 2008/09 were up for June. In the U.S. at the end of June, three percent of the corn acreage was at or beyond the silking stage, up only 1 percentage point from the previous week. This was 8 points behind last year and 6 points behind the 5-year average. Development was 1 to 31 points behind normal in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Ohio. Major developmental delays continued in Missouri, where already saturated fields received additional rainfall during the week. In Tennessee, silking lagged the 5-year average pace by 31 points. Condition of the U.S. corn crop at the end of June was rated 61 percent good to excellent, an improvement of 2 percentage points from the previous week. Condition ratings improved across much of the Corn Belt as fields continued to dry out.

Pakistan Finds Cartel of Feed Millers Behind Rising Feed Costs

Pakistan finds cartel of feed millers behind price hike

The exorbitant but ‘systematic’ increase in the price of poultry feed in Pakistan from October 2006 to November 2007 suggests that a cartel of feed millers has been behind the rising feed costs. Farmers fear that if the upward trend continues, it will not only make the price of chickens and eggs beyond the reach of common buyers but will also force small farmers, who cannot withstand the growing cost of production, to leave the field. The concern, supported by data prepared by the Society for the Advancement of Poultry Sciences, was raised recently by several farmers while talking to local press reporters.

Commenting on the situation, SAPS general secretary Dr. Shakaeb Ahmad said: “What is astonishing is that the chicken feed prices have shown an increase of 40 to 51 per cent from June 2006 to October 2007 whereas it should have been 18 percent, considering the progressive inflation rate in the country.” He said it was surprising that all feed companies enforced the increase of a price at the same time and date, irrespective of their quality. “It seems as if everyone has a perfect mutual understanding,” he said, adding that in the feed industry there were tycoons who had huge storage godowns which were filled in the crop season when prices were usually low and the produce was sold later at exorbitant rates. It is believed feed millers created an artificial shortage of feed ingredients while storing huge quantity of raw material to manipulate prices. There are around 2,500 poultry farms in and around Karachi, the majority of them run by small farmers. Sources in the Pakistan Poultry Association also confirmed the existence of a cartel behind the feed price increase but refused to give any official statement. They said the government had signed a lucrative deal with a Thai company which had been allotted land in the interior of Sindh for poultry production while no measures were being taken to address the grievances of small farmers.